Apple to Announce a Monster March 2012 Quarter?

So MoD is far from a financial analyst type guy, but it’s easy to put 2 and 2 together, or put 2 stories together.

Evidence Item 1

Apple due to increased foot traffic volume at their retail stores is allegedly modifying their scheduling rules to increase coverage on Fri/Sat/Sun and increasing the minimum hours for part time employees. If the foot traffic volume has continued to the point of requiring a change in staffing rules, then it seems reasonable to assume that Apple’s stores have continued their amazing numbers in this 1st calendar quarter of 2012. The new iPad has probably boosted that foot traffic.

Evidence Item 2

Cannacord Genuity Analyst Mike Walkley has published a note to investors indicating that the iPhone 4s has been the best selling smartphone the entire quarter on AT&T, Verizon and Sprint. Walkley based on his data believes that the iPhone 4S has been outselling all other smartphones combined on AT&T and Sprint and equal to the volume on Verizon.

So the evidence would indicate that Apple’s momentum is just continuing, what could this mean in terms of reported earnings for the quarter in late April?

Fortune’s Philip Elmer-Dewitt posted his first earnings estimates tracking chart, and right now the Wall Street Pros have Apple at $35.88 billion. The independent analysts like Horace Dediu, Robert Paul Leitao, Daniel Tello, and Andy Zaky  have Apple at $42.68 billion, or a difference of $6.8 billion. If the independent analysts are close to being right, Apple will have had a year over year increase of nearly 72%. For some perspective in  April 2010 Apple announced earnings of $13.5 billion, so Apple could in two years have potentially increased revenue nearly 200% in two years.

How does Apple get close to those numbers according to Horace Dediu?

  • 37 million iPhones
  • 12 million iPads
  • 4.7 million Macs
  • 7 million iPods

So it’s quite possible that Apple’s winter Quarter numbers could come close to matching the sales of their holiday quarter of 2011. Which begs the obvious question of what numbers Apple might hit for the rest of the calendar year.

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