An Estimate of Apple in 2013

The stats around Apple keep getting higher and harder to absorb.

$47 Billion in revenue for a quarter, nearly $100 billion in cash, 37 million iPhones sold, Apple if you count the iPad is the largest PC vendor in the world, Apple is the world leader in smartphones sold, the list goes on and on. Can this amazing growth for Apple continue?

There’s an interesting cadre of independent (amateur) analysts that predict Apple’s quarterly numbers and therefore have to provide estimates on Apple’s sales numbers of iPhones, iPads, and Mac.

Routinely these independent analysts do a better job predicting Apple’s revenue numbers than the professional Wall Street Apple analysts. You’ve seen MoD reference Horace Dediu before with his great charts displaying Apple’s surge into the smartphone industry. Horace of is one of these top independent analysts.

Well another member of this club is Daniel Tello who uses the nom de internet of Deagol. Recently, Deagol published a fascinating article about the potential growth of Apple’s products.

So based on the charts in the Deagol report (and he’s suggesting reasonable growth curves based on historical data factoring in both new customers and existing users upgrading hardware)  Apple  in 2013 could hit the following numbers;

Macs – 27 million for (presuming an ASP of $1250) $34 billion

iPhones – 180 million for (presuming an ASP of $600) $108  billion

iPads – 90 million for (presuming an ASP of $590)  $ 53 billion

iPods – the only product category that is in decline 25 million  for (presuming an ASP of $160) $ 4 billion

to get a potential total revenue count from these numbers, MoD added in an additional  8%  for  software, peripherals, iTunes Store, App Store, etc (that percentage comes from Apple’s most recent quarter) and Apple would post annual revenue in 2013 of $216 billion (nearly doubling revenue again from 2011) with a potential profit of over $61 billion.

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