2011: $100 Billion Year for APPL

So some analysts are throwing around projections that Apple could hit 100 billion in revenue in Calendar Year 2011. (using Calendar year terminology since Calender Q4 2010 is Apple FY Q1 2011)

Exactly how would Apple hit that seemingly astronomical number in revenue?

72 million iPhones sold (up from 42 million in calendar year 2010) x $600 ASP = 43.2 billion

40 million iPads sold (up from 14.8 million in 2010) x $623 ASP = $25 billion

17 million iMacs sold (up from 14 million in 2010) x $1300 ASP = $22 billion

43 million iPods sold (down from 47 million in 2010) x $175 ASP = $7.5 billion

Periphals, software, and services (including iTunes): $4 billion

So is this even possible?

The Mac/iPod/iTunes numbers are based on progressive growth in 2011 (no hockey stick growth spurts, in fact a decline in iPod sales)

the iPad/iPhone numbers are going to be key driver of this miracle number.

Getting to 72 million iPhones looks to be dependent on CDMA iPhones in the US reaching the potential 15 million additional iPhone numbers that analysts have referenced. Plus CDMA iPhones being made available in China (China Telecom is CDMA only but the bigger player in the Chinese cellphone space) and India (3 CDMA vendors) as well should help Apple reach this number. . Finally, Apple will need to continue massive availability of the iPhone 4 and a newer iPhone this summer. Considering Apple sold 16 million in the seasonal highest quarter, calendar Q4, Apple will need big sales every quarter. The current iPhone 4 transitioning into a $99/49 role in summer could help greatly especially in lower cost markets.

iPad numbers seem to be scaling where Apple could easily sell 10 million iPads a quarter. An updated iPad 2 will also help Apple get to this number. The tablet market seems to be scaling aggressively as well. There could be even more expansion in this number if carriers start offering subsidized iPads.

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