Factoring in the iPad- Apple’s Real Computer Marketshare

So a funny thing has started to happen post Apple’s tremendous launch of the iPad and their calendar Q2/Apple fiscal calendar Q3 recent financials numbers. What’s the real impact of the iPad is being asked, and how do you count that impact?

Phillip DeWitt at Fortune , who does a good job covering Apple news (he’s pretty balanced overall as well) for the online magazine, reports on data from Deutsche Bank which factors into portable computer market share the sales of the iPad for Apple. Apple with 5.7 million devices (2.5 million MacBooks and 3.2 million iPads)  goes from 7th  to 3rd with about 12% marketshare.

(courtesy of Fortune)

While, that jump is great news for Apple, this other chart presents some concerns for PC makers about where the real cannibalization effect of the iPad is occurring.

in Q2 all the major portable vendors saw their year over year growth numbers drop except Apple (who should arguably be seeing the biggest drop due to folks purchasing iPads and not the lower end MacBooks). Instead, Apple increased their growth of their regular laptop product line while at the same time launching the iPad which nearly outsold Apple portables. If this trend continues with escalating iPad sales (and legitimate competitors to the product all seem to be Q4 or later right now), then Apple by the end of year could be the number “portable” computer vendor in the world.

The impact is even seen in terms of overall PC marketshare. US market share for Apple with their 1.75 million computers/laptops was good enough for 4th place with 9.8 percent share. Now, Apple sold the majority of their iPads in the US in Q2, so lets project that 2 million were sold in the US (foreign availability and launch were constrained for much of the quarter so that number is pretty conservative).  Apple jumps to 3rd place, but more importantly jumps up to a 19% marketshare in punching distance next quarter with Dell (23.7 percent). And giving Apple market share numbers never seen by the company.

In worldwide market share, Apple’s 3.5 million laptops/desktops create a 4.2% marketshare trailing Toshiba and Asus who are both just over 5.1%, putting Apple at 7th in ranking. However, now factoring in the whole 3.2 million iPad, Apple moves into 4th place at 7.8% market share.

From a pro Apple bias, it just makes sense to include iPads into Apple’s computer numbers at least for right now. They are not iPods which are tracked via the MP3/Media Player category, also known as “how much market share does the iPod really have” rankings since the data has little impact on other companies. The iPhones are tracked and tracked with all the data on cellphones in general and smartphones.  Now, Apple sold 3.2 million iPads and 2.5 million “traditional” laptops in Q2. With an iPad ASP (average sale price) of $640 and a portable ASP of $1200, the combined ASP for both products is $927 which is significantly greater than the average ASP of a Windows PC $732 (according to Gartner in early Q2). So price wise the iPad seems to belong in the computer rankings (most netbooks are under $500, and are not put in a separate category). To put the iPad in the same category as e-readers like Kindle and Nook seems silly.  It’s a portable device for web browsing, managing email, and consuming media. The single biggest reason to discount the iPad seems to be that it’s not running Windows/Linux/ or the Mac OS which seems pretty arbitrary at this point. Now if enough tablets/slates from enough vendors start selling in large numbers, perhaps a separate tablet marketshare makes sense (especially if Apple sells 36 million iPads in 2011 like iSuppli projects, or 57 million tablets from all vendors by 2015 like some other analysts projects). However, if tablet sales clearly cannibalize PC sales, then it probably makes more sense to rank the products together. Also, what if Apple releases a laptop running iOS (basically a MacBook running iOS), where do you place that device? It could be that the traditional PC market share rankings are relegated to irrelevancy while everyone is focused on the overall mobile internet devices market (smartphones, tablets, iPod touch devices, laptops).

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